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Efficient, low cost transport is a critical and indispensable necessity
for civilization. Without it, humans would still live at subsistence
level, and in Hobbes' famous quote, our lives would be "poor, nasty,
brutish, and short."
One
may argue about the exact order of evolution of different modes
of transportation- did ships really precede wagons? - or their importance
in society - for some countries, wagons are more important than
autos, aircraft, or rockets - but all play an important role in
the world economy. Looking at the list, one is struck by three general
conclusions. First, as each new mode of transport is introduced,
there is a quantum jump in transport capability - the new mode does
things the older modes could not do. Moreover, where the new mode
does directly compete with the old modes, it generally does so more
efficiently and at lower cost. Railroads, for example, could move
people and goods, faster, more efficiently and more cheaply than
wagons. In turn, autos, trucks and buses could serve many more points
than railroads, which would go broke if they attempted to lay track
to every origin and destination point. Second, with the possible
exception of rockets, all of the transport modes have essentially
matured. Further performance gains in speed, carrying capability
and unit cost of transport, appear marginal at best. In fact, in
some respects, performance is likely to worsen. Higher traffic loads
are reducing the average speed on the highways, and increasing the
delays at airports. As the cost of fuel increases, the unit costs
of transport will also go up.
Third,
with the exception of wagons, pipelines, and electrified railroads,
all of the transport modes require fossil fuel - primarily, petroleum
- to operate. The world currently consumes approximately 80 million
barrels of oil per day, most of which is used for transport. At
30 dollars a barrel, the world spends almost a trillion dollars
annually for oil. Petroleum resources are being rapidly depleted
and will be largely gone in a few decades. As resources deplete,
the cost per barrel will rapidly escalate. As a result, the above
modes of transport will either have to electrify - difficult for
autos, trucks, and buses, and impossible for aircraft - or have
to depend on synthetic fuels. Such fuels will be even more expensive
than present ones. Moreover, since they will primarily be derived
from coal, oil shale, etc., they will continue to release large
amounts of carbon dioxide into the environment, further increasing
global warming.
Why do we need maglev? Basically because it offers a way out from
the inherent and unfavorable limitations of the existing transport
modes. What are the benefits and advantages of maglev, compared
to existing transport modes? Unique new markets enabled by maglev
include the capability to transport water for hundreds of miles
much more cheaply than pipelines, the capability to transport passengers
at 2000 mph in low pressure tunnels, and the capability to launch
to space at very low cost.
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